Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Stocks for April 27, 2009

Here are the stocks that are passing at least three of my five filters for the week of April 27.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
MYGN111 193
ARO 11 199
PNRA 11 199
TNDM111  99
ALGT111  95
HMSY111  95


There are no new stocks for the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
PNRA10Earn 28-Apr
COCO8Earn 30-Apr
BCR7 
CPSI7Earn 23-Apr
RMD7Earn 7-May
APOL6 
CAI6Earn 29-Apr
HMSY6Earn 1-May
CELG5Earn 30-Apr
STRA5Earn 30-Apr

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The S&P 500 is again in a cautious Yellow Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. The Inflation Model has jumped to three stars ("inflation danger"), but I am not too worried about this, yet. The XLB had a drop six months ago, for one week, and it may be distorting the numbers a bit.

I got a call from Fidelity... they are taking away my skate key and saying that I need $20,000 when I do any spreads. I argued (cogently and patiently) that these spreads, being covered, have a limited amount that they can lose. Anyway, I liquidated the older spread at the open on Tuesday, and will liquidate the other spread Wednesday morning.

The S&P has oscillated, somewhat violently at times, around 850. While I would make more money if it fell sharply two or three days in a row, I am still intrigued in how they bring in money. The factors that are causing the spreads to fall in value (which I like) are time decay and a lessening of volatility.

Have a good week trading.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Stocks for April 20, 2009

Here are the stocks that are passing at least three of my five filters for the week of April 20.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
ARO 11 199
PNRA 11 199
TNDM111  98
HMSY111  97
COCO 11 190


MANT has dropped off the core list. HMSY (HMS Holdings) is new to the list. HMS contains costs for government-sponsored health and human services programs.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
PNRA10Earn 28-Apr
COCO9Earn 30-Apr
BCR8Earn 22-Apr
CPSI8Earn 23-Apr
RMD8 
CAI7Earn 29-Apr
APOL7 
CELG6 
STRA5Earn 30-Apr
HMSY5Earn 1-May

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The S&P 500 is again in a cautious Yellow Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. The Inflation Model is again neutral at zero stars.

Last Friday, I sold some more bear call spreads, this time for the closer-in May expiration date. Monday had a steep drop (289 Dow points), which brought up the value of all of the bear call spreads. (Of course, it ain't over until I close the calls or they expire!) I think another distribution day (high volume, institutional selling) would be in order before I think about opening some bull put spreads.

I had a reasoned discussion with my friend, John C., about whether harsh interrogation techniques have a place within the military. These were spurred by those memos have come out, calling into question the legality of the interrogation. I would have to say that John has helped me to see that there are no black-and-white, "this is torture" arguments. Some detainees may have been injured or even killed, but perhaps thousands of Americans would have been killed if Khalid Sheikh Mohammed had been successful in flying a passenger jet into Library Tower in Los Angeles. I am still mulling over the merits of the idealistic side ("America has lost its soul through torture") versus the pragmatic side ("No American civilians had died since 9/11 because of those harsh interrogation techniques.")

Have a good week trading. It looks like a sea change is in place.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Stocks for April 13, 2009

Here are the stocks that are passing at least three of my five filters for the week of April 13.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
PNRA 11 199
HMSY111  98
TNDM111  98
STRA 11 188


ESI has fallen off the core list. STRA (Strayer University) provides undergraduate and graduate degree programs in business administration, accounting, information technology, and education.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BCR9 
COCO9 
CPSI9 
PNRA9Earn 28-Apr
CAI8Earn 29-Apr
RMD8 
CELG7 
APOL7 
MANT5Earn 29-Apr
STRA5Earn 30-Apr

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The S&P 500 is again in a cautious Yellow Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. The Inflation Model is again neutral at zero stars.

The NC Sustainable Energy Association is having a conference this week in Raleigh. I might be able to stick around for the networking mixer on Tuesday night. If nothing else, maybe I can figure out what other people are doing with solar.

I finally threw in my lot and sold some bearish June call spreads. Several indices are at the top of their Bollinger Bands, so it just seems reasonable. I suppose the market might continue to go up, but that seems less likely than a gentle or steep fall. If I get the latter, I will sell some bullish put spreads to turn this into an iron condor.

Have fun trading this week.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Stocks for April 6, 2009

Here are the stocks that are passing at least three of my five filters for the week of April 6.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
NFLX  11199
PNRA 11 199
CPSI 11 198
HMSY111  97
COCO 11 194
HOTT 11 194
MANT 11 193
APSG 11 189
RMD 11 189
BCR 11 186
CAI 11 185


AIR has fallen off the core list. There are no new stocks.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BCR10 
COCO10 
CAI9 
CPSI9 
CELG8 
PNRA8Earn 28-Apr
RMD8 
APOL7 
MANT6 
ESI5Earn 23-Apr

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The S&P 500 is again in a cautious Yellow Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. The Inflation Model is virutally neutral at a positive one-half star, indicating that a small amount of inflation is present.

Most of the family is with me in Raleigh today, as we are attending a speech and debate tournament. Several of the Chackos competed and did well. Karen was on her feet quite a lot, helping to judge debates and speeches.

A couple of my friends, Daniel and Fred, have lost their jobs in the past week. Stay away from Monster, guys -- there are too many IT guys. I heard one recruiter give a talk about targeting areas, targeting companies, and asking friends to get you warm calls inside the companies with hiring managers.

It seems like the market has finished its little rally and is pondering where it might want to go next. Hussman believes that the financial sector is not being helped by slackening balance sheet rules and mark-to-market rules, which are postponing the inevitable.

Have fun trading this week.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Stocks for the week of 30 Mar

Here are the stocks that are passing at least three of my five filters for the week of Mar 30.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
APOL 11 199
HMSY111  99
PNRA 11 199
CPSI 11 198
COCO 11 196
RMD 11 194
HOTT 11 193
APSG 11 191
BCR 11 190
MANT 11 189


There are no new stocks on the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BCR10 
COCO10 
CAI8 
CELG8 
CPSI8 
APOL7 
PNRA7Earn 28-Apr
RMD7 
MANT6 
AIR5 
ESI5Earn 23-Apr

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The S&P 500 is again in a cautious Yellow Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. The Inflation Model has crept up to a positive one star, indicating that a small amount of inflation is present.

I started working at Apogee this Monday and spent Wednesday working on the solar job and Thursday working on the currency trading job. I'm feeling like there's a lot on my plate, but I'm really enjoying this kind of analysis. I never thought of myself as a business kinda guy, but my jobs are saying otherwise.

The markets have had some wild gyrations, mostly to the upside. I do not think that the markets have reached a point of capitulation yet. The possibility of having the banks nationalized ("for our own safety and protection") and the reality of having a private-sector CEO being asked to resign by the White House is quite enough thrills and chills for this week.

Have fun trading this week.