Monday, July 28, 2008

Stocks for July 28, 2008

Here is the list for the week of July 28. It is comprised of stocks passing at least three of the five filters. It seems to me that both the number of stocks passing the weekly list and the number of stocks in the IBD Supply/Demand list are shrinking.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
ARO 1111A+
MOS111 1A-
AXYS 12 1A+
FLIR 12 1A+
RIMM 11 1A+
WAB 11 1A+
ACI 11 1A
ESV 11 1A
HAL 11 1A
JOYG 11 1A
NOV 11 1A
POT1 1 1A
GDI 11 1A-
MON 11 1A-
XLNX 11 1A-


GLW, KEX, BIDU, and PCLN are off the core list. There are no new stocks on the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
AXYS10 
JOYG10Earn 4-Sep
MOS10 
POT10 
RIMM10Earn 25-Sep
HAL10Earn 20-Oct
NOV10Earn 29-Jul
BUCY9 
RIG9Earn 6-Aug
ACI9 
FLR9Earn 11-Aug
MON9Earn 8-Oct
CSX8Earn 14-Oct
ESV8Earn 23-Oct
GDI8Earn 22-Oct
FTI7 
NBL7Earn 30-Jul
VMI7Earn 15-Oct
XLNX7 
KWK6Earn 6-Aug
MA6Earn 31-Jul
SWN6Earn 30-Jul
CF6 
BRY5Earn 30-Jul
MANT5Earn 30-Jul
NETL5 5
ARO Earn 21-Aug

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

I am reading through Van Tharp's other trading book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. The notion that he keeps driving home is one of Expectancy, which should be the amount that you would expect to make on a given trade. It will take into account both

  • differences between average wins and losses and
  • frequency of wins and losses
Taleb would not be happy, probably because there are large, uncontrolled losses lurking out there. Nevertheless, the book is interesting and the example well chosen.

The Market remains in Red Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. It has moved back to three stars in the inflation model ("Inflation Danger"), the same as last week. Enjoy your trading this week, but keep your eyes peeled.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Stocks for July 21, 2008

For your trading enjoyment, here is the list for the week of July 21. It is comprised of stocks passing at least three of the five filters.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
NOV111 1A+
MOS111 1A+
RIG111 1A
BUCY1 1 1A+
POT1 1 1A+
ESV 11 1A+
ARO 11 1A+
GDI 11 1A+
AXYS 12 1A+
JOYG 11 1A+
WAB 11 1A+
FLIR 12 1A+
CF  111A+
AAPL1 1 1A
PCLN 11 1A
RIMM 11 1A
HAL 11 1A
FLR 11 1A
SFY111  A-
MON 11 1A-
XLNX 11 1A-


ARO is back on the core list, having been off for a year. Aeropostale, Inc., is a clothing retailer at a mall near you. DVN is off the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
AXYS10Earn 22-Jul
BUCY10Earn 24-Jul
JOYG10Earn 4-Sep
MOS10Earn 28-Jul
POT10Earn 24-Jul
RIG10Earn 6-Aug
RIMM10Earn 25-Sep
ACI9Earn 25-Jul
CSX9 
MON9Earn 8-Oct
FLR9Earn 11-Aug
HAL9Earn 22-Jul
NOV9Earn 29-Jul
FTI8Earn 24-Jul
NBL8Earn 30-Jul
MA7Earn 31-Jul
SWN7Earn 30-Jul
XLNX7 
KWK7Earn 6-Aug
VMI7 
ESV7Earn 24-Jul
GDI7Earn 23-Jul
MANT6Earn 30-Jul
BRY6Earn 30-Jul
NETL6 
CF6 
GLW5Earn 30-Jul
KEX5Earn 23-Jul
BIDU5 
PCLN5 
ARO5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

Welcome to another interesting week of trading. The Dow went through some major gyrations, bouncing off of a W bottom and rallying. IMO (In My Opinion), it was a rally without a lot of conviction, based on the notion that the Fed and the Treasury will come to the rescue of the infamous twins, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

I heard them descibed this morning as a very sick patient, needing more and more medicine. But the opinion did not include the possibility that they were pumping drugs into a pair of corpses.

Let's talk about the process, briefly. (This is an amateurish description, but then again, I'm an amateur!) Centura lent me some money for a mortgage in 2002. After doing so, they promptly turned around and sold the loan to Fannie Mae, picking up perhaps 75 basis points (3/4%) of the notes value for their effort. Fannie Mae took my note and sliced it into tranches of, say, 5-7 years and 8-10 years. Then Fannie sold them like bonds of 5-7 and 8-10 years, hinting that they were guaranteed by the Federal government. These, in turn, were wold to other corporations and municipalities who would have no idea that these may have been in Alt-A or subprime mortgages. Multiply the above by one million.

Everything is well and good until a large number of people default. This could easily happen because the amount borrowed on the whole is 102% of the value of the houses. (This is an aggregate for all of the US. I read it in a book by Bill Bonner. It was historically 50%; it indicates that we have been borrowing on equity lines and buying bigger houses.)

So the money is starting locally, moving federally, and ending up in the hands of far-off places like Norway and Malaysia.

The markets rallied when the Federal government agreed to take on the relatively worthless debt of Fannie and Freddie and back with the full faith of the US Government. We'll have to see how much confidence this restores, but it did put a halt to the diving financial market.

The Market remains in Red Light mode according to the 1-2-3 model. It has moved back to three-and-a-half stars in the inflation model ("Inflation Danger"), up from the "some inflation risk" of last week. We have seen a clearing rally, giving another opportunity to establish some protective short positions. Tread carefully.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Stocks for July 14, 2008

Here's the list for the week of July 14, for stocks passing at least three of the five filters.

SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
MOS111 1A+
RIG111 1A+
ACI 11 1A+
AXYS 11 1A+
BUCY1 1 1A+
CF  111A+
ESV 11 1A+
FLIR 12 1A+
FLR 11 1A+
FTI111  A+
GDI 11 1A+
HAL 11 1A+
JOYG 11 1A+
KWK 11 1A+
NOV 11 1A+
POT1 1 1A+
RIMM 11 1A+
AAPL1 2 1A
CSX1 1 1A
DVN 11 1A
MON 11 1A
SFY111  A
VMI 11 1A
ARO 11 1A-
BIDU112  A-


CF is back on the core list. GFA and LNN are off the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
ACI10Earn 25-Jul
AXYS10Earn 22-Jul
BUCY10Earn 24-Jul
CSX10Earn 15-Jul
JOYG10Earn 4-Sep
MOS10Earn 28-Jul
POT10Earn 24-Jul
RIG10Earn 6-Aug
RIMM10Earn 25-Sep
MON9Earn 8-Oct
MA8Earn 31-Jul
FTI8Earn 24-Jul
NBL8Earn 30-Jul
SWN8Earn 30-Jul
FLR8Earn 11-Aug
HAL8Earn 22-Jul
NOV8Earn 29-Jul
MANT7Earn 30-Jul
BRY7Earn 30-Jul
XLNX7Earn 16-Jul
KWK7Earn 6-Aug
VMI7Earn 17-Jul
GLW6Earn 30-Jul
KEX6Earn 23-Jul
BIDU6 
NETL6 
ESV6Earn 24-Jul
GDI6Earn 23-Jul
PCLN5 
DVN5Earn 6-Aug
CF5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The market continues to make new lows, led by the financial stocks. My own employer has seen its stock dip from the 50s to the low 20s. I have mentioned here before that SKF, the ultra-short financial ETF, had made a base in the low 90s. It has more than doubled since then.

The 1-2-3 method continues with stocks in a Red Light mode. We are still at 2 stars on the Inflation Stars, which is interpreted as "Some inflation risk."

Enjoy trading this week. I'm still looking for a small (but meaningless) bounce up, but don't think the bear market is over as a result. The fundamentals still leave a lot to be desired.