Sunday, March 30, 2008

Stocks for March 31, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. I reviewed my stocks that had passed only two of the five, namely Value Line timeliness=1 and Zacks. If they had not been reviewed for passing the Price/Earnings/Growth ratio, then I added the latest P/E/G numbers. Thus, there are a handful of stocks that had consistently passed three filters, which are appearing below. They are only making their debut now because of my neglect instead of a fiscal problem.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
BUCY112 1A+
RIG111 1A+
RIMM1 111A
WFR111 1A
WDC111 1B
AXYS 12 1A+
FLS 11 1A+
ISRG1 2 1A+
KEX 12 1A+
KWK112  A+
LIFC 12 1A+
MANT 12 1A+
MON 12 1A+
NFLX 12 1A+
PCLN  111A+
PRGO 12 1A+
RRC1 2 1A+
AGU 12 1A
ANSS 12 1A
BMC 12 1A
CLHB 12 1A
ESRX 11 1A
FLIR 11 1A
GME 11 1A
MATK 11 1A
CHTT 12 1A-
GLW 12 1A-
JEC 12 1A-
OMG 12 1A-


NOV, NOK, and VIP have fallen off the core list. Replacing them are:

  • FLIR (FLIR Systems, designs, manufactures, and markets thermal imaging and infrared camera systems.)
  • GLW (Corning Incorporated provides specialty glass and ceramics products.)
  • KWK (Quicksilver Resources acquires and develops natural gas and crude oil in North America.)
  • RIMM (Research In Motion Limited designs and manufactures wireless solutions for BlackBerrys.)

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
LIFC8 
BUCY8 
TNE7 
ESRX7 
FLS7 
ISRG7 
PCLN7 
RIG7Earn 7-May
WFR7 
POT6Earn 24-Apr
MA5 
FLIR5 
GLW5 
KWK5 
RIMM5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

More about the bailout of Bear Stearns. John Hussman has some fightin' words to descibe this recent fed action, which you can read about in full in his article entitled Why is Bear Stearns Trading at $6 instead of $2? Here are some excerpts:

  • "Bear Stearns is trading at $6 instead of $2 because unelected bureaucrats went beyond their legal mandates, delivered a windfall to a single private company at public expense, entered agreements that violate the the public trust...
  • "In effect, the Federal Reserve decided last week to overstep its legal boundaries – going beyond providing liquidity to the banking system and attempting to ensure the solvency of a non-bank entity.
  • "The Fed did not act to save a bank, but to enrich one.
  • "That's not sound monetary policy – it's a picnic for insiders, bought and paid for through the abuse of public funds by government officials too unprincipled even to recognize the abuse."
Well said, Dr. Hussman.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Stocks for March 24, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. If it stays on the weekly list for more than 5 of the past 10 weeks, then it will also be displayed on the core list.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
BUCY112 1A+
RIG111 1A+
WFR111 1A
ESRX 11 1A
FLIR 11 1A
GLW 12 1A
GME 11 1A
LIFC 12 1A
MATK 11 1A
RIMM1 1 1A
FLS 11 1A+
KWK112  A+
PCLN  111A+


WMB had just made it on to the core list last week, but has dropped off for this week.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
LIFC8 
TNE8 
ESRX7 
POT7Earn 24-Apr
FLS7 
BUCY7 
ISRG6 
PCLN6 
WFR6 
RIG6Earn 7-May
MA5 
NOK5Earn 17-Apr
NOV5 
VIP5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The market was cheered last week with an optimistic bailout of Bear Stearns. To use the analogy of bailing out a leaking boat, I suppose that the boat would be the US economy, and the water rushing would be damage from a hole in the hull from a financial institution. Problem is, we don't know what else is beneath the water line and how many holes are left to plug.

I am at risk of sounding like the morose donkey Eeore in Winny the Poo. Be that as it may, I'll let them keep on bailing, but keep a life preserver and scuba gear at the ready, just in case it gets worse.

For your interest, there are several ProShare funds that double the opposite direction of various market indices:

  • DOG (Opposite Dow 30)
  • SH (Opposite S&P 500)
  • MYY (Opposite MidCap 400)
  • QID (Opposite QQQQ)
These are all optioned, so you can sell puts on them or write covered calls on them. Yes, use common sense when trading these. They have sharp edges that can hurt.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Stocks for March 17, 2008

Welcome to another week of unabashed volatility. Without further ado, here is the latest list of stocks passing three or more filters.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
BUCY112 1A+
RIG111 1A+
WFR111 1A
WDC111 1A-
AUY1 11 A+
FLS 11 1A+
ISRG1 1 1A+
KWK112 A+
PCLN 111A+
GLW 12 1A
LIFC 12 1A
MUR 11 1A
VIP111 A
FLIR 11 1A-
RIMM1 1 1A-
WMB 12 1A-


Two new stocks on the core list are RIG and WMB. Transocean, Inc. (RIG) operates offshore rigs to the hightest bidder. The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) produces and transports natural gas in the United States. These stocks are off the core list:

  • DE
  • MATK
  • MOS
  • NDAQ
  • ORCL
  • SWN

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
LIFC8
POT8
TNE8
ESRX 7
FLS7
ISRG7
MA 6
NOK 6
NOV 6
PCLN6
VIP6
WFR6
BUCY 6
RIG 5Earn 7-May
WMB 5


moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

The market was down sharply today (Friday) because Bear Stearns needed a bailout from the New York Fed and JP Morgan Chase. You can't write drama like this. In the mean time, President Bush and Fed Chair Bernanke are admitting that while things are not rosy, they have have a firm grip on the economy and will act quickly to save it.

(My opinion: keep an escape plan at the ready.)

Yes, the 400 point jump was nice last week in response to the additional liquidity and the Fed agreeing to use the (possibly worthless and certainly unpriceable) CDOs and SIVs as collateral to get some fresh cash. Once again, the government is stepping in to prop up large, private orgaizations, shielding them from their own poor decisions.

We got the bounce on Monday, but it seems to me that our foreign investors are beginning to figure out that the dollar is going the way of all flesh (and to its intrinsic value of paper). Go long only with offsetting short positions. (As an alternative, think about ETFs that are ultra short, that is, that go up 2% when their sector goes down 1%. An example is SKF, which is an ultra-short on financial stocks.) Enjoy!

Monday, March 10, 2008

Stocks for March 10, 2008

I'm composing this in the Chicago O'Hare airport. It's snowing with light flurries now. Watching them clean a plane with a modified firehose applied from a cherry picker is a site to behold, with billows of steam rising up. I had a presentation yesterday (which I think went quite well, thank you).

I have been listening to WNUA (FM 95.5). WNUA (http://www.wnua.com/main.html) streams a strangely familiar blend of smooth jazz and hits from the '70s.

So this is what Easy Listening has become. I think I'm getting that gray-at-the-temple feeling.

Here is my new weekly list of stocks passing three or more filters.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
PCLN1 111A+
RIG111 1A+
ISRG1 1 1A
MA111 A
RIMM1 1 1A
VIP111 A
AUY1 11 A+
BUCY1 2 1A+
CLR111 A+
POT1 1 1A+
TNE111 A+


A new stock on the Core list is Bucyrus International, Inc. (BUCY). Bucyrus designs and sells mining equipment such as rotary blast-hole drills. These stocks are off the core list:

  • AMTD
  • CF
  • CLB

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
ESRX8
LIFC8
POT8
TNE8
FLS7
NOK7
NOV7
ISRG7
MA7
WFR6
PCLN6
VIP6
DE5Earn 14-May
MATK5
MOS5Earn 4-Apr
NDAQ5
ORCL5
SWN5Split 26-Mar
BUCY5Split 26-Mar


Another down week, with the indices reaching 18-month lows. I thought we might see a bounce off the lower Bollinger Band this week, but the slide continues unabated.

A particularly difficult holding for me is Thornburgh Mortgage, which I bought on the recommendation of a newsletter. (A quick note: I do not blame the newsletter editor, who has generally been quite good; I take responsibility for my trades, both good and bad.)


Anyway, TMA had been trading in the low $9, and enjoyed a remarkable gain to $12. I sold $10 calls against it. Last week, they got a margin call, that is, their creditors asked them to cough off more collateral. They were unable to secure short-term loans, and the stock plummeted from $12 to $9 (last week) to $3 to $1.28 (Friday), an 86% drop. Ouch. According to a WSJ article (Sat Mar 8, p. B1, written by Lattman and Smith), their average mortgage holder has a credit score of 774. But a business such as theirs cannot survive if Goldman Sachs, ING, and JP Morgan Chase are seizing their assets. Their Chief Executive, Larry Goldestone, is quoted as saying, "Quite simply, the panic that has gripped the mortgage-financing market is irrational and has no basis in investment reality."

Trim back those winners and wait for an upturn in the Nadsaq MACD before venturing back into the market. The gold and energy stocks are doing quite well. So are the ultra-short ETFs.

We may see a bounce; this is to be expected in a bear market. But don't go very long and offset your longs with short positions. Enjoy trading this week.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Stocks for March 3, 2008

Another list of weekly and core stocks for your reading pleasure.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
PCLN1
111A+
WFR111
1A-
AUY1
11
A+
BUCY1
2
1A+
CF1
11
A+
FLS
11
1A+
ISRG1
1
1A+
KWK112

A+
LIFC
12
1A+
PDE111

A+
POT1
1
1A+
RIG
11
1A+
RIO111

A+
TNE111

A+
VIP111

A+
FMCN111

A
MA111

A
MUR
11
1A
NOK
11
1A
RIMM1
1
1A
WMB
12
1A
CTRP112

A-
ESRX
11
1A-
GLW
12
1A-
IVGN
12
1A-
NOV
11
1A-


There are no new core stocks. These stocks are off the core list:

  • aapl
  • aco
  • ag
  • goog
  • jaxo

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
ESRX9
LIFC9
FLS8
NOK8
NOV8
ISRG7
WFR7
POT7
TNE7
DE6Earn 14-May
MATK6
MOS6Earn 4-Apr
NDAQ6
ORCL6
PCLN6
VIP6
MA6
CLB5
AMTD5Earn 17-Apr
CF5
SWN5Split 26-Mar



Another difficult week on the markets. It has been very helpful to move many assets to gold and energy stocks. Further, there is a solid handful of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that are short and ultra-short, that is, when the selected index goes down 1%, these EFTs will go up 1% or 2%. One that looks interesting is Pro-Shares Ultra-Short Financials, which doubles a basket of Financial stocks (in the opposite direction).

Enjoy trading this week.