Saturday, December 29, 2007

Stocks for 31 Dec 2007

I will continue my postings to blogspot. Here are the stocks from the weekly list that passed at least three filters.


SymbolBB Zacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
AAPL1 211A+
ESRX111 1A+
FLS111 1A+
NOK111 1A+
NOV111 1A+
PCLN1 111A+
RIMM1 111A+
WFR111 1A+
AMTD111 A+
AMZN1 1 1A+
BOOM1 2 1A+
CF1 11 A+
CNH1 1 1A+
DE1 1 1A+
DECK1 11A+
GOOG1 2 1A+
ISRG1 11A+
JASO112 A+
MOS1 1 1A+
NDAQ1 1 1A+
ORCL1 1 1A+
OTEX111 A+
PCP1 1 1A+
SPWR1 1 1A+
VIP111 A+
VMI1 1 1A+
ACO1 1 1A
AG1 1 1A
BGC111 A
CLB1 1 1A
EBAY 11 1A
FTI111 A
GRMN11 1A
LIFC1 2 1A
MATK111 A-


There is one new stock on the core list, Amazon (AMZN). In case you haven't heard, they sell books, electronics, and music using the Internet. (But you still can't find a Wii.) I value it with a P/E/G of 0.57 this year and 1.31 next year. (I have a cutoff of a P/E/G less than 1.7, and the smaller the P/E/G the more company you get for the money.) It has a book value per share of 1.4 cents (tiny!). I will be watching this one with interest. I personally like the company, and have found them to have excellent customer service. But I'm not buying the customer service, I'm buying the stock.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
AAPL10
ESRX10
LIFC10
MOS10Earn 9-Jan
PCLN10
PCP10
GOOG10
ISRG10
NOK10
NOV10
VIP10
SLB9
BOOM9
NDAQ9
GME8
SYNA8
CLB8
CNH8
RIMM8
SPWR8
VMI8
KCI7
PSEM7
SXE7
BGC7
FLS7
OTEX7
DO6
LOGI6Earn 17-Jan
ACO6
FTI6
NVDA5
ICLR5
SIGM5
TISI5
AMZN5Earn 30-Jan


Some of the core stocks that I am long now are BOOM, CLB, KCI, and SYNA. My employer is requiring that I hold these (and any other stocks) for at least 30 days. In order to lay off some of the risk of having to hold the stock, I am also selling calls that when they have at least 30 days before expiration. Several of these have fallen, but the covered call is providing some downside protection. For example, SYNA has fallen sharply, 8%, while the Jan 45 calls on it have also fallen sharply, cushioning my loss. (In an ideal world, I would have offset my loss completely, but that's not how the world works.)

Core Labs (CLB) is doing better, overall. If it hits the top Bollinger band, then I will sell some calls on it as well. Have a Happy New Year and trade well during this shortened week.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Stocks for Christmas week

This is my first post on Blogspot. It looks like 360.yahoo.com is going through a sea change, and I have had some trouble getting technical support to answer my questions. So let my try some posts here and see how the blogs compare. I will cross post on my old blog as well.


Here are the stocks from the weekly list that passed at least three filters.







SymbolBB Zacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
ESRX111 1A+
FLS111 1A+
LIFC112 1A+
PCLN1 111A+
NOK111 1A
NOV111 1A
NVDA111 1A-
AAPL1 2 1A+
AMZN1 1 1A+
BOOM1 2 1A+
CF1 11 A+
CLB1 1 1A+
CNH1 1 1A+
DE1 1 1A+
GOOG1 2 1A+
ISRG1 11A+
JASO112 A+
MOS1 1 1A+
NDAQ1 1 1A+
OTEX111 A+
PCP1 1 1A+
SPWR1 1 1A+
VIP111 A+
VMI1 1 1A+
WFR111 A+
AG1 1 1A
BGC111 A
FLIR 11 1A
GRMN11 1A
PSEM111 A
SIGM11 1A
SLB1 1 1A
ACO1 1 1A-
FTI111 A-
MATK111 A-
WDC 11 1A-






There are three new stocks on the core list, ACO, FTI, and SIGM.


  • Amcol International Corp. (ACO) provides additives for detergents, skin care products, and
    cat litter.
  • FMC Technologies, Inc. (FTI) manufactures systems for offshore energy, airports, and foods.
  • Sigma Designs Inc. (SIGM) provides digital video products and web streaming.

EBAY and HANS are off the core list.


Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):



SymbolPassing weeks Earnings


AAPL
10

ESRX
10

LIFC
10

PCLN
10

PCP
10

SLB
10

MOS
10Earn 9-Jan

SYNA
9

GME
9

GOOG
9

ISRG
9

NOK
9

NOV
9

VIP
9

RIMM
8

CLB
8

CNH
8

VMI
8

BOOM
8

NDAQ
8

SPWR
8

KCI
7

SXE
7

PSEM
7

DO
6

LOGI
6Earn 17-Jan

NVDA
6

BGC
6

FLS
6

OTEX
6

ICLR
5

TISI
5

ACO
5

FTI
5

SIGM
5





IBD is now saying the rally is under pressure. Now that's more like it! I have noticed IBD's asymmetry when it comes to declaring a market bullish or bearish: it seems hard to get them to say the market is falling, and they switch quickly to the rally side. I wonder when they will stop calling a rally after a fall a follow-through day and start calling it a sucker's rally.


Mike R. sent me an article entitled "The Blow-up Artist," by John Cassidy in The New Yorker (October 15, 2007). Great story about Victor Niederhoffer, a famed speculator who had a dramatic undoing in 1997. He had an equally dramatic comeback. But judging by the emotional tone and his bias toward believing in a bullish market, he is in serious trouble now.



Taleb had something to say about Niederhoffer.

Niederhoffer's publicized hiccup came from his selling naked options based on his testing and assuming that what he saw in the past was an exact generalization about what could happen in the future. He relied on the statement "The market has never done this before," so he sold puts that made a small income if the statement was true and lost hugely in the event of it turning out to be wrong. When he blew up, close to a couple of decades of performance were overshadowed by a single event that only lasted a few minutes.


(Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness p. 120)


I bought some CLB based on one of my favorite technical indicators. Note that it hit one of the local minima in late November (28Nov) and tested the low again on 18 Dec. However, the MACD rose from a bottom to a higher point. That is a classic bullish divergence.


Development on the lot continues unabated. We hit rock but were given a go-ahead by a soil engineer. You can read about it at chackobuild.blogspot.com



Have a Merry Christmas and trade well this week.