Saturday, April 26, 2008

Stocks for April 28, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. RIMM alone has passed all five.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
RIMM11111A
LNN 1111A+
RIG111 1A+
ACI 111 A+
AXYS 11 1A+
BIDU112  A+
DE1 1 1A+
JOYG 11 1A+
MA111  A+
MON 11 1A+
MOS1 1 1A+
NOV111  A+
PCLN  111A+
POT1 1 1A+
ANSS 12 1A
CLHB 12 1A
DVN 11 1A
ESRX 11 1A
GFA111  A
HXM112  A
IVGN 12 1A
KEX 12 1A
MANT 11 1A
NFLX 11 1A
PRGO 11 1A
WMB 12 1A
GLW 12 1A-


This week, I welcome the following four stocks to the core list:

  • MANT
  • MON
  • NFLX
  • PRGO
ManTech International (MANT) provides solutions for national security programs. Monsanto ("Without chemicals, life itself could not exist": a truism that becomes less true by repetition) uses genomics to make agricultural plants with very cool characteristics. NetFlix (NFLX) was founded by a guy who was quite unhappy with his Blockbuster late charges for renting Apollo 13. They mail you DVDs and charge you a flat monthly fee. Perrigo (PRGO) distributes pharmaceuticals, both O-T-C and by prescription.

FLIR and MUR are off the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
RIG10Earn 7-May
BUCY9 
PCLN9Earn 8-May
RIMM9Earn 25-Jun
ESRX8Earn 29-Apr
ISRG7 
GLW7Earn 29-Apr
LIFC6 
FLS6Earn 28-Apr
KWK5Earn 7-May
WFR5 
MATK5 
NOV5Earn 30-Apr
POT5Earn 24-Apr
WMB5Earn 2-May
MANT5Earn 30-Apr
MON5 
NFLX5 
PRGO5Earn 6-May

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

I am reading Invest Like a Dealmaker by Chris Mayer. He likes to make his money the old fashioned way: look at balance sheets and find companies with a tiny ratio of Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA).

I read an article in March's Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities by John Ehlers. The intent of the article was to determine the fundamental cycle of a commodity or stock. I suppose that if one were able to do this well, one could buy at the bottom of a cycle and sell at a top. Here is a chart that shows Ehlers doing a Stop-And-Reverse on the S&P mini. Might be worth a few hours of playing around in TradeStation to see if there are any markets that will play nicely with Ehlers' cycles.

I hope you're doing well. My shorts are doing poorly, but hey, that's life in the big city. The Day of the Bears may yet come upon us.

My best wishes for good trading this week.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Stocks for April 21, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. BUCY, RIG, and RIMM have passed all five. IBD is also listing RIG as having broken out of a cup-and-handle (a good thing).


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
BUCY11211A+
RIG11111A+
RIMM11111A
CSX1 111A+
DE1 111A+
MOS1 111A+
NOV1111 A+
POT1 111A+
WFT1 111A+
BIDU1121 A
ISRG1 211A
ARD1 11 A+
AXYS 11 1A+
CAM1 11 A+
FSLR1 21 A+
JOYG 11 1A+
KWK1 11 A+
MON 11 1A+
NE1 11 A+
NFLX 12 1A+
PRGO 11 1A+
RDC1 11 A+
RRC1  11A+
ANSS 12 1A
CELG1 11 A
CLHB 12 1A
ESRX 11 1A
EZPW1 11 A
GME 11 1A
HLF 11 1A
KEX 12 1A
MANT 11 1A
MATK 11 1A
MPWR1 11 A
SOL1 11 A
GLW 12 1A-
WMB 12 1A-


MA and TNE are off the core list, but I welcome NOV and WMB back on the list. (These two have been off the list for only three and four weeks, respectively.)

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BUCY10 
RIG10Earn 7-May
PCLN9Earn 17-Apr
ESRX8 
ISRG8 
RIMM8Earn 25-Jun
LIFC7 
GLW7 
FLS6 
WFR6 
KWK6Earn 7-May
FLIR5Earn 24-Apr
MATK5 
MUR5Earn 30-Apr
POT5Earn 24-Apr
NOV5 
WMB5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

Henry and I are discussing whether the DJIA is putting in a bottom or is in the midst of a sucker's rally. I don't know, but I I am gingerly holding on to my bearish bias. What do you think? Do you see higher lows and higher highs (bullish)? Or lower lows and lower lows (bearish)? Or some indefinitive combination of the two? I'll let you decide for yourself. Henry, if it's any consolation, IBD is siding with you: "Market in confirmed rally." As for me, I know that the news reports can misinterpret or lie, while the charts always portray what has happened and gives a fair guess as to what may happen.

I visited my mom in Silver Spring, MD. She celebrated her birthday last Saturday. I also helped her and dad decide on a new (used) car: a Toyota Camry. It did well on Consumer Report's "Best Used Cars under $20000" list. It also did well on crash tests, possibly because of the side air bags.

We went to Carmax first, and then Enterprise Car Sales. The former helped us narrow down which models were of interest. The latter offered a better price. It was interesting to walk into the Enterprise Car Sales and say exactly what we wanted: A Toyota Camry, last year or two, fewer than 20,000 miles, and the LE trim package. All the salesman had to do was to check his database. He brought up a car from Fairfax the next morning.

My best wishes for good trading this week.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Stocks for April 14, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. RIMM is back on top of the heap, passing all five.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
RIMM11111A
BUCY112 1A+
RIG111 1A+
AGU 11 1A+
AXYS 11 1A+
JOYG 11 1A+
LNN  111A+
MON 11 1A+
NFLX 12 1A+
NOV111  A+
PCLN  111A+
PRGO 11 1A+
WFT1 1 1A+
CLHB 12 1A
ESRX 11 1A
FLIR 11 1A
GLW 12 1A
KEX 12 1A
MANT 11 1A
MATK 11 1A
VIP111  A


Martek Biosciences (MATK) is back on the core list, having dropped off a month ago. The company still develops and manufactures essential fatty acids, such as docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA). I take DHA and EPA supplements each morning because of some of the claimed benefits of better brain function and a lower risk of cardiovascular disease.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BUCY10 
PCLN9Earn 17-Apr
RIG9Earn 7-May
ISRG8 
LIFC8 
ESRX8 
FLS7 
RIMM7Earn 25-Jun
WFR6 
FLIR6Earn 24-Apr
GLW6 
TNE5 
KWK5Earn 7-May
MA5Earn 28-Apr
MUR5Earn 30-Apr
POT5Earn 24-Apr
MATK5 

moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

I had a great time presenting "Technical Analysis, the odds-on favorite" at the Charlotte Chapter of the AAII. It was a great crowd, with one guy coming from Greensboro and another from Columbia, SC. I hope it was worth the gas money!


During the meeting, I pointed out a bullish divergence for Delta Air Lines. One attendee pointed out the avalanche of bad news concerning airlines in general and Delta in particular. His point was well taken, but it may be at the heart of technical analysis: since the stock was not moving lower, and the MACD was moving higher, it indicated that the bears were losing their will to push the stock further down. It's also possible that the bad news had already been accounted for in the stock price. That meant that DAL had some upside potential. On Monday morning, there was some talk of Delta merging with Northwest, and it was up as much as 5%. (I'm not trying to call a bottom here, but it is nice when the indicators line up and make sense!)

Oh, I finished my taxes, also. By the way, H&R Block offers a charming online program, which does not substitute for the CD version. Little things, like importing your stock transactions, cannot be done online. The people at the Davis Lake H&R office were kind and took pity on me, and gave my taxes a once over. (I'm still scratching my head, but by removing a $114 penalty, I pay $299 less in federal taxes and get a larger NC refund.)

Happy trading.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Stocks for April 7, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters.

For my friends who live in or near Charlotte, I will be presenting at the AAII Charlotte meeting this coming Saturday, April 12, at 10 A.M. You may find out more about the time and place at this AAII page.


SymbolTop RankedZacks PEG SuppDem VLIBD Stock checkup
RIG111 1A+
AGU 11 1A+
BUCY1 2 1A+
FLS 11 1A+
ISRG1 2 1A+
LIFC 12 1A+
LNN 111A+
MON 11 1A+
NFLX 12 1A+
PCLN 111A+
PRGO 11 1A+
WFT1 1 1A+
BMC 11 1A
ESRX 11 1A
MANT 11 1A
MATK 11 1A
MUR 11 1A
RIMM1 1 1A


Murphy Oil (MUR) is new on the core list. The company explores, produces and refines oil and gas. (Do you think there's a pattern in companies coming onto the core list?)

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

SymbolPassing weeks Earnings
BUCY9
LIFC8
ISRG8
PCLN8Earn 17-Apr
RIG8Earn 7-May
ESRX7
FLS7
TNE6
WFR6
RIMM6Earn 25-Jun
POT5Earn 24-Apr
FLIR5Earn 24-Apr
GLW5
KWK5Earn 7-May
MA5Earn 28-Apr
MUR5Earn 30-Apr


moving down this week
moving up this week
new this week

A fairly positive week, almost enough to get me out of my bearish hibernation. Almost. IBD is declaring that we are in a market rally now, with the Dow dancing about 12,800. We're not that far, either in time or distance (Jan 2008 and 11,600) from our previous low that was retested only a few weeks ago. The Dow and Nasdaq are approaching previous resistance levels, and the bulls are itching for it to push through those levels.


Let's wait and see. In the mean time, I am doing much better in commodities than in this choppy stock market. My best success in the latter was being exercised my naked CLB puts and being put the shares last December at 120. Now that CLB has pushed through its upper Bollinger Band, I am selling covered calls on it. (Let's try to keep Mr. Market happy, and buy when he's miserable and sell to him when he's elated.)

Happy trading.