Stocks for Feb 25, 2008

Here is the new list of weekly stocks that passed 3 or more filters.

Symbol	Top Ranked	Zacks	PEG	SuppDem	VL	IBD Stock checkup
PCLN	1		1	1	1	A+
RIG	1	1	1		1	A+
WFR	1	1	1		1	A
LIFC	1	1	2		1	A-
AUY	1		1	1		A+
BUCY	1		2		1	A+
ESRX		1	1		1	A+
FLS		1	1		1	A+
ISRG	1		1		1	A+
PDE	1	1	1			A+
POT	1		1		1	A+
TNE	1	1	1			A+
MA	1	1	1			A
MUR		1	1		1	A
NOK		1	1		1	A
NOV		1	1		1	A
WMB		1	2		1	A
CTRP	1	1	2			A-

Mastercard (MA) is a new stock for the core list. Yes, that Mastercard. It is a payment solutions company. These stocks are off the list:

• amzn
• boom
• cnh
• gme
• pcp
• spwr
• vmi

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol	Passing weeks	Earnings
ESRX	9
LIFC	9
FLS	8
NOK	8
NOV	8
DE	7
MOS	7
NDAQ	7
ISRG	7
MATK	7
WFR	7
CLB	6
VIP	6
ORCL	6
PCLN	6
TNE	6
POT	6
AAPL	5
ACO	5
AG	5
CF	5
GOOG	5
JASO	5
AMTD	5
SWN	5
MA	5

One of my motivations for having the family portfolio meeting was finishing up on the reading of The Seeds of Wealth, which you will see in a separate blog entry.

Enjoy trading this week.

Review of "Seeds of Wealth"

I read The Seeds of Wealth by Justin Ford, and would like to share some of its message. I got it through Agora Financial.

The thesis of the book is that you should save and invest 100% of the gifts given to your children from age 0-5. Then from 5-18, you should save and invest 50% and bring the child along toward the point where he or she is interested and excited about saving money. From 18 on, he will be saving 10% or 20% of his income, and by age 40, the miracle of compounding may propel your offspring to millionaire status.

I like your thinking there, Justin. Something sure needs to change, because neither Uncle Sam nor my employer are interested in keeping me off the gerbil wheel.

Good read here for steady savers with a long investment horizon and those interested in low-expense-ratio mutual funds. Ford is not a market timer. He does have an example that bugs me a little, and that is including market returns through the crash of 1929. The problem is not so much for the person starting to save in 1929, but the person about to tap his nest egg in 1931, when he has seen his portfolio savings drop in half.

Ford does have a good treatment of bringing the kids on board for investing, for avoiding the "gimmes," and for teaching them honest work and diligence. And the book was a good reinforcement for me after taking a financial seminar at church.

I hope the kids will remember what their old man taught them when they're sitting on their small fortunes. I doubt that Social Security will be very secure by then.

Stocks for February 18, 2008

Our weekly list continues to strengthen. Here are the stocks that passed 3 filters or more. Of note is that IBD no longer has Black Bars, starting on Tuesday, Feb 12. Instead, they have 33 industries and list the top ranked for some of those industries. Those have become my new "Black Bar" filter. Although the list is shorter, they do correspond more closely with many of the strong technical and fundamental stocks that I have been filtering for.

Symbol	Top Ranked	Zacks	PEG	SuppDem	VL	IBD Stock checkup
ISRG	1		2	1	1	A+
PCLN	1		1	1	1	A+
RIG	1	1	1		1	A+
LIFC	1	1	2		1	A
WFR	1	1	1		1	A
WDC	1	1	1		1	A-
BUCY	1		2		1	A+
FLIR		1	1		1	A+
KWK	1	1	2			A+
MA	1	1	1			A+
POT	1		1		1	A+
TNE	1	1	1			A+
ESRX		1	1		1	A
NOK		1	1		1	A
GLW		1	2		1	A-
IVGN		1	2		1	A-
MUR		1	1		1	A-
NDAQ	1		1		1	A-
NOV		1	1		1	A-
WMB		1	2		1	A-

I added a new stock, Potash (POT), a Saskatchewan-based producer of fertilizers and related industrial and feed products.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol	Passing weeks	Earnings
ESRX	9
LIFC	9
DE	8
FLS	8
MOS	8
NDAQ	8
NOK	8
NOV	8
VIP	7
CLB	7
ISRG	7
MATK	7
AAPL	6
ACO	6
AG	6
GOOG	6
JASO	6
CF	6
ORCL	6
PCLN	6
TNE	6
WFR	6
AMZN	5
BOOM	5
CNH	5
GME	5
PCP	5
SPWR	5
VMI	5
AMTD	5
SWN	5
POT	5

It seems that the markets were not soothed by the Fed's talk of lower interest rates; Valentine's Day was a good day for lovers but a bad day for the markets.

We had a family portfolio meeting, our first, on Wednesday. We decided how much each of us parents (and our two teenagers) wanted to devote to a core portfolio, and how much to a spice portfolio. Generally, the splits were around 60% core and 40% spice. We decided to add some gold and energy stocks to the mix, as these should hold up well. Both gold and energy are in limited amounts in the ground, and will be resistant to the Fed's printing presses.

Trade defensively, and trade well!

Stocks for February 11, 2008

Our weekly list is starting to recover a little bit of its depth.Here are the stocks that passed 3 filters or more.

Symbol	BB	Zacks	PEG	SuppDem	VL	IBD Stock checkup
LIFC	1	1	2		1	A+
BOOM	1		1		1	A+
BUCY	1		1		1	A+
DE	1		1		1	A+
FLIR		1	1		1	A+
FLS	1		1		1	A+
GME		1	1		1	A+
ISRG	1		1		1	A+
MA	1	1	1			A+
MOS	1		1		1	A+
POT	1		1		1	A+
RATE	1	1		1		A+
RIO	1	1	1			A+
STT	1	1	2			A+
SWN	1		2		1	A+
TISI	1	1	1			A+
TNE	1	1	1			A+
VMI	1		1		1	A+
APOL		1	2		1	A
ESRX		1	1		1	A
IVGN		1	2		1	A
NOK		1	1		1	A
ORCL	1		1		1	A
STRA	1		2		1	A
MATK	1	1	1			A-

I dropped four stocks from the core list, BGC, FTI, OTEX, and RIMM. I added two, SWN and TNE. Southwest Energy (SWN) is based in Houston, and develops natural gas and oil. For different reasons, I think that natural gas will do well this year, as folks seek an alternative to heating with oil. Tele Norte (TNE) Leste Participacoes S.A. provides telecommunications services in North America, Europe, Asia, and Brazil.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol	Passing weeks	Earnings
ESRX	9
FLS	9
LIFC	9
MOS	9
DE	9
NDAQ	8
NOV	8
VIP	8
NOK	8
AAPL	7
ACO	7
GOOG	7
AG	7
CLB	7
ISRG	7
JASO	7	Split 8-Feb
MATK	7
AMZN	6
PCLN	6
PCP	6
BOOM	6
CF	6
CNH	6
GME	6
SPWR	6
VMI	6
ORCL	6
AMTD	5
WFR	5
SWN	5
TNE	5

The market was down considerably on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The Dow was up a little on Thursday.

I am not sure why some brokers, like TradeStation, require that you have $5000 in order to write bear call spreads. But I am sure they can figure out how much is actually at risk. I am looking at selling Mar 140 calls and buying Mar 145 calls for protection.

Trade defensively, and trade well!

Stocks for February 4, 2008

Another exciting week on Wall Street, with a rate cut from the Fed to jump-start the economy. Here comes our list of stocks passing 3 (of possible 5) filters. There were only a paltry 2 stocks that passed 3 filters, and none that passed 4 or 5.

Symbol	BB	Zacks	PEG	SuppDem	VL	IBD Stock checkup
TNE	1	1	1			A+
NOV		1	1		1	A-

I dropped two stocks from the core list, PSEM and SLB. Even as Schlumberger falls off the list, I am noticing that it has hit is lower Bollinger Band and the MACD is ticking upward. Still, I am going to abide by my own rules and hold off on this one.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol	Passing weeks	Earnings
ESRX	9
FLS	9
LIFC	9
MOS	9
NDAQ	9
VIP	9
NOV	9
AAPL	8
ACO	8
GOOG	8
NOK	8
DE	8
CLB	7
ISRG	7
PCLN	7
PCP	7
AG	7
AMZN	7
JASO	7	Split 8-Feb
BOOM	6
GME	6
VMI	6
CF	6
CNH	6
MATK	6
SPWR	6
FTI	5
OTEX	5
RIMM	5
AMTD	5
BGC	5
ORCL	5
WFR	5

There is more talk of an upcoming recession. If this is typical of most recessions, we won't know that we're in it until it is well underway. (Even more typical: we find out several months afterwards.)

I will continue to trade defensively, and look for opportunities to sell bear call spreads and buy out-of-the-money puts with the cash.

Trade defensively, and trade well!